The New York Metstry to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Seattle Marinerson Sunday night, still without a run in this three-game series. Seattle has easily handled New York’s offense in both games with 6-0 and 4-0 wins to show for it.
The Mets send out their No. 1, Luis Severino, who's looking to salvage this backend of the road trip before returning home. He has really struggled in his last two outings, throwing eight combined innings of 10-run ball.
Seattle counters with an ace of their own as Luis Castillo takes the mound. Castillo has logged a quality start in each of his last six appearances.
Here’s aMariners vs. Mets parlay for"Sunday Night Baseball," which features SGP picksfor Brandon Nimmo, Justin Turner and more.
Remember to bet responsibly– this is a long shot for a reason.
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Mets Moneyline (+120)
Mariners vs. Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
This is a hold-your-nose play right now given the Mets offense, but they should not be an underdog tonight.
Severino has been a huge bright spot for the Mets this season, and now that he’s fully healthy, he's starting to live up to his potential. The right-hander has an xERA of 3.92 and has dished out the lowest hard-hit rate (35.8%) since 2018.
He has been able to limit barrels and keep the ball on the ground at a strong rate, even when he’s not generating many swings and misses. I’m not reading too deep into his post-All-Star break struggles.
For starters, he went to Coors Field, a venue where most pitchers struggle. Included in that four-game stretch was a beatdown by the red-hot Twinsoffense. Even with Seattle’s +10 run differential this series, the Mets offense is much better.
Against right-handed pitching, the Mets are 10th in wRC+ (107). Seattle is down at 17th (96). The Mets top Seattle in isolated power, as well, and strike out at a much lower rate – SEA is dead last at 28.3%.
As for Castillo, he does have some concerns. His xBA has jumped nearly two-tenths year over year, and his strikeout rate has dropped nearly 4% as well. He continues to outpitch negative regression – 3.81 xERA vs. 3.48 actual – and has allowed the highest hard-hit rate of his career (tied for 2023, 41.8%).
We’ll talk about this more in a second, but the Mets can stack left-handed hitters against Castillo tonight, an area of weakness for the right-hander. In a game where the Mets have the offensive and possibly even bullpen edge – No. 1 inxFIP in the past 30 days – this game should be closer to a coin flip.
Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Mariners vs. Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
There have not been many positives to take away for Brandon Nimmo since the All-Star break, but I believe he is close to ending his month-long slump.
Over the last four games, Nimmo has a pair of doubles. He already has as many doubles (3) this month than in July (3), and gets a decent matchup against Castillo on Sunday.
The biggest issue with Castillo is his lefty-righty splits. While right-handed hitters are hitting just .198 with a .557 OPS against him, lefties have found plenty of success (.282 average, .815 OPS).
In nine plate appearances against Castillo, Nimmo does have a double. He’s also walked three times – so don’t let the average fool you. If he is given a pitch to hit, I would not be surprised to see it leave the park today.
Nimmo is also one of the few Mets that have actually seen an increase in their rolling xwOBA graphs over at Baseball Savant based on the latest 50 plate appearances.
Justin Turner to Record an RBI (+225)
Mariners vs. Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let’s boost this parlay with one of Action Network’s highest-rated edges of the day, shall we?
Justin Turner to record an RBI is +225. Based on our Action projections, we have him slated for 0.5 – a +11% edge!
While Turner has not exactly been the hottest hitter this month – .217 average – it’s where the righty bats in the lineup that makes him valuable here. The Mariners have slid Turner in the cleanup spot.
Hitting behind speedy players like Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena makes Turner a great value play here. Both of those outfielders have shown they’re threats on the base paths. That should give Turner a couple of opportunities with a runner in scoring position.
Even with the expectation of Severino bouncing back, the threat still remains, and it’s not like I’m expecting a shutout by any means. This is not only a boost to the parlay odds wise, but it’s one of the biggest edges across Action Network’s projections across the board.
Trust in Turner, who came through in two RBI situations last night against New York in what could be classified as a "revenge game," if you really want to stretch it.
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